Gulf Oil Spill

For those few of you who read this blog, just recently I posted about how oil exploration should be expanded and enlarged through out the Gulf Coast region. The premise was that our way of life is in jeopardy as the world's supply of oil recedes and is in decline. We need to continue to explore just to maintain our way of life in our 21st century culture. At the same time, I advocate for alternative energy research and development, while decrying activists who demonstrate on beaches, while forming "hands across the sand" in opposition to off shore oil exploration.

Score one for the activists. The Transocean (RIG) contracted by BP that caught fire and is leaking 5000 barrels of oil into the Gulf is a natural disaster of immense proportions.  The State of Louisiana just declared a "disaster zone" on the coast line. The slick is expected to hit land tomorrow or Saturday and to impact beaches, seafood breeding grounds, and the coastline in general.

What awful timing just as President Obama announced 3 weeks ago his plans to expand offshore drilling for oil. However, I still strongly advocate offshore drilling---these are the last known reserves of oil out there, and we need to find oil in this hemisphere---and stop relying on the Middle East and other politically unstable areas of the world.

While I am sensitive to wildlife and the ocean ecosystem, it will take a lot more than this to dissuade me from advocating offshore oil drilling. Granted, we took a chink in the armor this last week, and I am watching the updates and reports carefully. All week, the news of the oil spill was not top of the list in any on line or printed pub. Look for that to change over the next few days.

Reprint of Article by Rich Karlgaard from Forbes Magazine

This is a great overview of  the US economic situation, and I have read articles from each one of the people he mentions below. It's a great way to classify the various theories that are out there, and attribute them to their respective authors.

Most of what is said about the U.S. economy these days could be true or false, depending on your angle. That's because America is too big and too diverse to be described usefully by blanket statements. Inside a landmass that is 3.7 million square miles and has 50 state jurisdictions and thousands of cities are 307 million people, who produce $14 trillion in annual GDP and privately hold $54 trillion in net assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.).

Let's begin with a question that ought to be simple but is not: Is the U.S. economy in recovery? The facts say yes, but there are a lot of angry doubters out there.

You can't argue the facts: By traditional yardsticks the American economy began its recovery in the spring/summer of 2009. The third quarter of 2009 was up 2.2%, and the fourth quarter boomed at 6%. This pattern is likely to repeat. The first quarter of 2010 will clock 3.5%, and the second quarter, clear of winter weather, could bounce up nearly 6%.

Still, many doubt the numbers, and not all are angry posters. John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.com, a Forbes.com columnist and a monetarist in the fashion of Milton Friedman, thinks GDP is a flawed number. It's expressed in an unreliable measure--the U.S. dollar. Expressed in gold, GDP has been contracting for eight years. Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute, says the U.S. is in a balance sheet recession, marked by deflation and deleveraging that will crimp investing and spending for a decade or more. Look at Japan to see what could await the U.S., says Koo. Longtime Forbes columnist A. Gary Shilling holds a similar view, as does Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University.

These are coolheaded analysts, not angry blog critics.

But wait, it gets worse. Harvard financial historian and author Niall Ferguson says debt-laden America is past its glory but will try to mask its decline by inflating away its debt problems. Marc Faber, a former Forbes columnist and international money manager, who, like Ferguson, studies the decline and fall of civilizations, agrees. Paul Farrell, the gloom-and-doomster at Marketwatch.com, is the biggest bear of them all. He says the U.S., as we know it, will "collapse." Chaos will reign, perhaps followed by civil war. Farrell openly calls for a Second American Revolution against the redcoats who rule Wall Street.

The other day I tried an exercise in which I defined a seven-band spectrum of bears to bulls. The categories are:

--Apocalyptically bearish. Believes in the crash-chaos-anarchy scenario described by Paul Farrell. Book author Harry Dent and bloggers too numerous to mention fit here.

--Strongly bearish. Believes that a long, Japan-like stagnation is inevitable for the U.S. This category includes Shilling, Roubini, Ferguson and Koo, as well as Charles Munger, famous investing partner of Warren Buffett.

---

--Moderately bearish. Believes that the bull rally since March 2009 is on thin ice but that the U.S., despite its problems, still has a good future. Here you might place Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo's Jeremy Grantham, Fusion IQ's Barry Ritholtz, Seabreeze Partners' Douglas Kass and Millennium Wave Advisors' John Mauldin.

--Neutral. Thinks the market is fairly valued and awaits further data. Two well-known market timers, InvesTech's James Stack and Hulbert Financial Digest's Mark Hulbert, would fit here.

--Moderately bullish. Believes the market is fairly valued and will rise another 10% to 20% on momentum before it gets stuck in a several-year trading range, barring pro-growth changes in taxes and regulation. I would put myself here.

--Strongly bullish. Believes the November elections will create enough balance--or gridlock--to get America's narrative away from Washington politicos and back to entrepreneurs and investors, where it belongs. This is where you'll find Fisher Investments' Ken Fisher, First Trust Advisors' Brian Wesbury and CNBC's Larry Kudlow.

--Extremely bullish. Believes that we have only begun to touch the technological miracles that will enrich our minds, bodies and pocketbooks. Nobody I know fits this category.

Two things jumped out as I did this exercise.

First, in the late 1990s several pundits and forecasters would have fit into the last category--extremely bullish. At the same time hardly any forecasters were apocalyptically bearish. But in 2010 the opposite is true--far more gloom-and-doomsters than optimists. It's a sign of the times, certainly. However, maybe what this is telling us is that the biggest economic and market surprises of this decade could be on the upside. I saw a black swan in Australia last month, and it looked confident.

Second, beware of any blanket forecast about the U.S. economy and markets. It's bound to be right and wrong--and, therefore, useless. The $14 trillion American economy is, in fact, a galaxy of smaller economies. Michigan has nearly twice the unemployment of Texas, which has almost twice the unemployment of Nebraska. California has strength in Silicon Valley and Hollywood and weakness most everywhere else. Now is a great time to invest in the American economy. Just be sure you pick the right American economy.

Bill Haslam for Governor

Bill Haslam is a self made man. He has successfully represented the people of Knoxville as their mayor. People up there love him. He knows the difference between needed government and too much government.

He is a part of one of the most successful families in Tennessee. As a part of the Pilot Oil executive staff, Bill has contributed on a daily basis towards the success of the company before entering politics. He has earned the right to use his legally earned resources towards his political ambitions.

The fact that his father has cemented strong relationships across the state in advance of his son's political career is an asset worth leveraging. It makes no difference that the tried and true conservative and even moderately conservative wing of the party has more ties to Bill's father than to the candidate himself.

Bill Haslam is the real deal. He'll work hard for the State.  It's time for Ted Welch and Bill's father, Jim, to fade into the pasture and let the new generation lead.

Let's allow the people (and not the old guard) to elect the next Governor. Bill has my vote and support.  

Soon the curtain will be pulled.

Zach Wamp for Governor

Zach Wamp is a self made man. He has been a leader for his congressional district in SE TN and knows the difference between needed government and bloated government.

I'm tired of someone with zillions of dollars coming into office based upon business success and with the the resulting funds to buy the most advertising to influence the most voters.

Zach is the real deal. He will work hard for the state. It's time for Ted Welch, Jim Haslam, and all of the Republican political insiders to fade out to pasture.

Let's let the people (and not the political cronies)  elect the next Governor. Zach has my vote and my support.

Twitter

I've started tweeting at http://www.twitter.com/Mark1Oldham    ---not sure what that will do to my longer posts as well as the frequency thereof here at catchmyblog, but will prolly reduce for a while. You are encouraged to follow me!

Print is NOT dead! Southcom is a great example locally

Great article in the WSJ yesterday about how print is just another medium, and that rumors of it's death are entirely premature. You can click here to read it, although it may be in the paid content area. 

Now, admittedly, I don't subscribe to as many magazines as I used to, particularly ones such as (Time, Newsweek, etc). Those types of magazines are probably heading to the sea of extinction. So broadly, the internet is having major influence on how we, as consumers, stay informed, but not so much that the printed word is going to die completely. Back in the 1930's they claimed that radio would be the demise of newspapers (and to some extent that is occurring 80 years later, but the working model for the local City Paper www.nashvillecitypaper.com is brilliant). Then, critics said that television would replace radio in the 1950's, and lo and behold, both TV and radio compete to this day. So now in the 21st century, the internet is supposed to be displacing print completely. In the final analysis, it's just a fourth medium that has developed before our eyes. Fine, tightly niched print publications are going to thrive long after we are gone. Which is why I am so excited about companies locally like SouthCom. Chris Ferrell and Townes Duncan have put together several very focused print publications all operating under one roof with one sales and management team. They are well positioned to reap the rewards of a company with shared resources that produces various print and internet publications without the large overhead of disparate and spread out organizations. Although the WSJ article mainly alludes to national print magazines, the same can be said for unique companies like SouthCom.

Letter to the Editor--Apalachicola Times

Click here to read the original article

Here is my letter to the editor:

As a homeowner on SGI, I subscribe to the Apalachicola Times, and read with interest about the recent protest surrounding offshore drilling for oil by a local group of environmentalists. 

Are these people out of their minds? Do they wish for our county and  country to be continually at our knees to foreign Middle East countries for the lifeblood of our economic engine--Tourism--which is supplied by the abundance of oil ?? 

How many of these people who protested would be happy to see this area rely on things other than tourism--such as  locally produced seafood products? I have been reading  how this  much beloved local industry is having its own difficulty right now unrelated to our collective concerns for the continuous supply of oil.

What kind of depression would Franklin County be in if we could NOT  buy oil from overseas NOR produce oil domestically from drilling? If there were no tourists visiting the area,  and if we had a challenged seafood industry, there would basically be no jobs in Franklin County...... What would these protesters protest at that time ? My guess it that they would blame the government for their problems.  Ahh, Liberals...You can never make them happy. 

My other guess is that most of the people  who "joined hands across the sand" are idealists, who generally wish the best for this area, but just don't get it. Not only should we be drilling for oil NOW, but we should also be exploring Alaska (where all the polar bears live) and we should also be doing all that we can to sustain the development and exploration of oil and natural gas--not for the betterment of society--but for the sheer existence of the world in which we live. 

Believe it or not, I love the environment as much as anyone.  I love the outdoor pleasures that surround me on beautiful St. George Island, and I support the RiverKeepers. . But I am willing to risk that the benefits of  technological developments  for oil production can and will supercede the possibility of an accident  that might temporarily jeopardize the wildlife and world that we all love on SGI.  It's a risk worth taking. And at the same time we should be developing alternative fuels. Our energy needs must  be attacked, not protested!! 

George Will--A sensible path to GOP and US solvency

This is a great article by George Will, originally posted on Fluentnews.com. It needs no further explanation than an open mind and a willing spirit to compare these ideas to the current ones being offered up by Washington, both by the President, and by the majority party in Congress.


In 2013, when President Mitch Daniels, former Indiana governor, is counting his blessings, at the top of his list will be the name of his vice president: Paul Ryan. The former congressman from Wisconsin will have come to office with ideas for steering the federal government to solvency.

Not that Daniels has ever been bereft of ideas. Under him, Indiana property taxes have been cut 30 percent, and for the first time Standard & Poor's has raised the state's credit rating to AAA. But in January 2010, Ryan released an updated version of his "Roadmap for America's Future," a cure for the most completely predictable major problem that has ever afflicted America.

Some calamities -- the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, Sept. 11 -- have come like summer lightning, as bolts from the blue. The looming crisis of America's Ponzi entitlement structure is different. Driven by the demographics of an aging population, its causes, timing and scope are known.

Funding entitlements -- especially medical care and pensions for the elderly -- requires reinvigorating the economy. Ryan's map connects three destinations: economic vitality, diminished public debt, and health and retirement security.

To make the economy -- on which all else hinges -- hum, Ryan proposes tax reform. Masochists would be permitted to continue paying income taxes under the current system. Others could use a radically simplified code, filing a form that fits on a postcard. It would have just two rates: 10 percent on incomes up to $100,000 for joint filers and $50,000 for single filers; 25 percent on higher incomes. There would be no deductions, credits or exclusions, other than the health-care tax credit (see below).

Today's tax system was shaped by sadists who were trying to be nice: Every wrinkle in the code was put there to benefit this or that interest. Since the 1986 tax simplification, the code has been recomplicated more than 14,000 times -- more than once a day.

At the 2004 Republican convention, thunderous applause greeted George W. Bush's statement that the code is "a complicated mess" and a "drag on our economy" and his promise to "reform and simplify" it. But his next paragraphs proposed more complications to incentivize this and that behavior for the greater good.

Ryan would eliminate taxes on interest, capital gains, dividends and death. The corporate income tax, the world's second-highest, would be replaced by an 8.5 percent business consumption tax. Because this would be about half the average tax burden that other nations place on corporations, U.S. companies would instantly become more competitive -- and more able and eager to hire.

Medicare and Social Security would be preserved for those currently receiving benefits or becoming eligible in the next 10 years (those 55 and older today). Both programs would be made permanently solvent.

Universal access to affordable health care would be guaranteed by refundable tax credits ($2,300 for individuals, $5,700 for families) for purchasing portable coverage in any state. As persons younger than 55 became Medicare-eligible, they would receive payments averaging $11,000 a year, indexed to inflation and pegged to income, with low-income people receiving more support.

Ryan's plan would fund medical savings accounts from which low-income people would pay minor out-of-pocket expenses. All Americans, regardless of income, would be allowed to establish MSAs -- tax-preferred accounts for paying such expenses.

Ryan's plan would allow workers younger than 55 the choice of investing more than one-third of their current Social Security taxes in personal retirement accounts similar to the Thrift Savings Plan long available to, and immensely popular with, federal employees. This investment would be inheritable property, guaranteeing that individuals will never lose the ability to dispose of every dollar they put into these accounts.

Ryan would raise the retirement age. If, when Congress created Social Security in 1935, it had indexed the retirement age (then 65) to life expectancy, today the age would be in the mid-70s. The system was never intended to do what it is doing -- subsidizing retirements that extend from one-third to one-half of retirees' adult lives.

Compare Ryan's lucid map to the Democrats' impenetrable labyrinth of health-care legislation. Republicans are frequently criticized as "the party of no." But because most new ideas are injurious, rejection is an important function in politics. It is, however, insufficient. Fortunately, Ryan, assisted by Republican Reps. Devin Nunes of California and Jeb Hensarling of Texas, has become a think tank, refuting the idea that Republicans lack ideas. 

On Turning 50-Celebrating with Friends

So we celebrated in Nashville last night and here's what my good friend Chip Smith had to say about our little party of 12 people:

Just got up a bit ago from my SECOND nap of the day. We had a BLAST! What a memorable night shared with a great cast of characters and friends! We are so glad that we could be there to celebrate MO's big 5-0! Any time you want to rent a country music star's bus, crack open some Dom, taste some great bourbons,  hit the disco, and go for a little late night karaoke in Printer's Alley count us in.Thanks so much for letting us be a part of such a momentous occasion!


With the assistance of Tom Sturdeyvant of Sedan on Demand, we had a progressive dinner party, and well, er um, after party too. We started at Whiskey Kitchen for appetizers and a bourbon tasting, followed by salad and dinner at Allium Cafe in East Nashville. We were chauffeured around in Alan Jackson's old black tour bus that Sedan on Demand now owns and rents (Sedan on Demand is a highly recommended vendor) . Our dinner was accompanied with some great wines, the most interesting being a 2002 magnum of Divine, courtesy of Sylvia Roberts, who owns this label in Napa. After dinner, we journeyed back over the Cumberland and wound up at a trio of late night spots. The first stop was Hollywood Disco where we were all moving and grooving as best we can these days (pure unadulterated 70's fun), followed by live music at Loser's (basically next door). Loser's was a great atmosphere with an entertaining house band playing mostly country rock hits from the 80's and 90's. We worked our way up front by the band because there was no stage, which added to the honky tonk feeling of this roudy collegiate atmosphere bar. Our final stop was Lonnie's Karaoke bar in Printer's Alley. I'd never been to a karaoke bar, and found it quite entertaining. Lonnie's has a stage right behind the bar so those poor souls who want to embarrass themselves get up in the middle of the place and belt out to their heart's content. My business partner, Shawn Thomas sang an old Journey song. He sang pretty well, but not as well as a rendition of My Girl that had the whole place singing, from another patron, to the best of my recollection. With the clock fast closing in on 2:00 AM, we headed back towards the burbs in our swanky tour bus. We had originally planned on late night dessert and cappuccino but alas, we were all ready to head to our respective homesteads.


All in all, it was a truly unforgettable evening with the fabulous company of Chip and Mary Loch Smith, Shawn Thomas and Carla Stokes, Jeff and Mary Ellen Morris, Mike and Claire Robbins, Peter and Kim Oldham, and lastly Louis and Cynthia Kirkpatrick who thought the snow was going to cancel the event, so they ended up being no shows, the little weenies. It was definitely their loss.


 And in case you're wondering, we will have a much larger celebration in May, entitled  "125 reasons to celebrate" --100 years of combined living for Sharon and myself plus 25 years of marriage. If you are reading this, you will most certainly be on "The List" , since my blog is not that widely read, because I don't promote it , but that's another topic altogether. 


And I'd just like to say publicly on my blog about how much I value the support and love from my wife,  Sharon , for over 25 years of marriage. Thanks for all you do! We had a blast on my 50th! 

On Turning 50--A Palindrome

from Jim Merenda, an affiliate publisher with Uniguest You must watch this link A palindrome reads the  same backwards as forward. This video reads the exact opposite  backwards as forward.  Not only does it read the opposite, the  meaning is the exact opposite. This is only a 1 minute, 44  second video and it is brilliant.   Make sure you read as  well as listen forward and backward.            This is a video that was  submitted in a contest by a 20-year old.   The contest was  titled "u @ 50"  by  AARP. This video won second place.  When they showed it, everyone in the room was awe-struck and broke  into spontaneous applause.  So simple and yet so brilliant.  Take a minute and watch it.

So much for Rumors, ATT beats out Verizon for IPAD/ IPHONE still with ATT too

AT&T Inc. won the right to carry Apple Inc.'s high-profile iPad in the U.S., a coup for the company but on terms that further erode the wireless industry's carrier-centered model.

Here is the full article from the Wall Street Journal, which may or may not be behind the paid wall. More and more content on WSJ is free, so it's hard to tell. As a paying subscriber to WSJ, it's great to have access to the whole site, but it's a crock that they charge an additional fee for a mobile app. So if one wants access to the full site and to the mobile app , there are 2 fees. Kinda strange. 

Anyway, here is the link to the article about the continued lovey dovey relationship between ATT and APPLE. It's probably because ATT continues to give Jobs the upper hand, which the article points out.

On Turning 50

Half a century old. Half a century young. The cup is half empty. The cup is half full. These are some of the thoughts that are going through my head as the calendar slips towards February 1st, where my 50th birthday awaits me. Numbers don't lie. But I sure wish I could prevaricate and say that I'm younger. I feel a lot younger, and yearn to be younger as we all do, but when it's all said and done, I'm comfortable with 50. It's a milestone for sure. I really wasn't sure if I was ever going to live this long, which, by contemporary standards, is not that old. But it's good to be here and to still be kicking! It's fairly typical to reflect when one reaches a milestone such as 50. I have no regrets. Absolutely zero!  It's been a wonderful first 50, and am now hoping to make it another 50. Wonderful wife, family, career. So much for which to be thankful and so much for which I take for granted, it's ridiculous. I got a great head start from wonderful parents, and great brothers to boot. As they say, life is a journey and not a destination, but my overall favorite quote about the journey of life is the following:

Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, champagne in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming ???  WOO HOO what a ride!??? 


Carpe diem!

I'm predicting a fairly major snow event for Friday 1/29/10

And this just in from the National Weather Service:

EDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE BIG WEATHER NEWS STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MID STATE AS COLD AIR GETS
PULLED IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT AN ESTIMATE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS. HOWEVER, 4+ INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY
BECOME A DANGEROUS PROPOSITION AS WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS.

Apple to announce Verizon as Iphone carrier--RUMOR

As a previously long time Verizon customer (1992-2006), I switched the day the Iphone came out  and went  with ATT, since that's the only thing a Mac lover could do....It's hard for me to fathom why Verizon passed on the Iphone deal, and it's a fact  that the executive who detested Steve Jobs at Verizon recently took "early retirement". If the below rumor from Mac Daily News is true, then I will switch back to Verizon just as swiftly. Not sure whether to short ATT stock or to buy call options on VZ. Probably neither. It's just a rumor...

A tablet still might not be the only new hardware we see from Apple next week -- the rumor mill is still churning out news that the "one more thing" next week will be a brand new version of the iPhone, set up on the Verizon network," Mike Schramm reports for TUAW.

"It comes not from an anonymous source, but Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek," Schramm reports. "If you ask me, this is one too many rumors not to be true -- eventually, we'll see an iPhone on the Verizon network. But I'm hesitant to agree it'll be announced as early as next week."

Derek Dooley is the Man

With a son named Peyton, and with five years coaching under Nick Saban,  what could be wrong with the coaching skills and thought processes of Derek Dooley??!

I believe for the record that we have found the man to lead the VOLS for the next 5 years, until Peyton Manning is ready to coach, that is, perhaps that might be 3 years, perhaps 10 years. Average of 5 years. Whatever.  Peyton Manning will be our next coach. But yet,  I wonder why Peyton would want to work that hard after having amassed a huge fortune playing professional football for the Colts. But, I digress.

Derek Dooley, despite his Georgia upbringing, is absolutely perfect for the challenge of leading the Vols. After having consumed the Kool Aid of Lane Kiffin, I have hereby vomited it out, and live for the day that Kiffin is laughed out of Southern California, or fired, whichever comes first.

As for Derek Dooley, I am hereby already a huge fan and ready to rumble next fall.

This expert sees a bubble in China; Crash coming

Most people talk and read about how great the overall economy is in China, and how they are kicking everyone's butt in terms of economic growth, output, and every other economic indicator. Could it be that China is similar to Japan  in the 1980's--and  that China is near or at it's peak given the history of other nations in  attempting to industrialize to the max? The road cannot be straight up all the way, there has to be some downhill from time to time.  Read this from the New York Times as written by David Barboza.




HANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Enlarge This Image

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

James Chanos made his hedge fund fortune predicting problems at companies and shorting their stock.

Related

To Slow Growth, China Raises an Interest Rate (January 8, 2010)

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Now Mr. Chanos is betting against China, and is promoting his view that the China miracle has blinded investors to the risks in that economy.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out ofrecession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.
As America’s pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies’ strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos’s narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement,coal, steel and iron ore.
Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience — in addition to predicting Enron’s demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world’s biggest banks — his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.

Time will tell if Mr. Chanos is correct or incorrect.

Fulmer and Peyton Manning

Let's face it, Peyton Manning is 35 years old and has about 2-3 years left max in his pro career. I don't look for Peyton to pull a Brett Favre and play until he is a senior citizen.

Let's face it, what happened with Lane Kiffin is not what Tennessee football is about. Those left coast Cali whale huggin' turds just don't think the way we do here in Tennessee.

We are all about tradition. Sure we are mad when we lose, but we don't want to play in this circus going on out there in the ranks of the elite college coaches.

So here is my idea. Make Phil Fulmer head coach again for a maximum of 36 months. Get Peyton Manning to agree to become head coach at the end of his pro career. Who knows, he has a bum knee now, and may win the Super Bowl this year. He may want to go out on top.

Either way, have Fat Phil hold down the fort for a while. Let's not poach another coach the way USC did to us.

When Peyton is ready to "come home" to coach, kick Phil upstairs and find a nice place for Mike Hamilton elsewhere, likely in fund raising or similar.

Tennessee fans would go NUTS!

Blogging about Lane Kiffin

How can a coach (or anyone for that matter) sign a long term contract, and then break it go to elsewhere with little recourse, and yet, if that same coach were to get fired, he would be paid his salary in full for the years not coached? Is that not a double standard?

It turns out that Lane Kiffin has to pay $800,000 over 36 months as a penalty. But if you ask me, he should have to pay his remaining years in salary per the contract he signed less than 14 months ago. To be exact, that would 4 years of time left on his contact (x) $2 million per year, plus the break up fee, for a total of $8,800,000. That would certainly cause dweebs like Kiffin to think twice about bolting. And it's fair b/c the UT administration would do the same thing if they fired Kiffin.

And I've not even touched on the integrity question. College Football is out of control. It has become a big business with few ethical concerns amongst the coaching elite.  And when ethics are brought up by the NCAA, it covers such important topics as whether or not a booster took someone out to dinner. Give me a break. The real ethical concerns to me are the actions of people like Lane Kiffin.

To put it another way, here's what ESPN's Bob Wojciechowski says:

If there were a stock car race between all the frauds, egomaniacs and two-faced weasels I've ever covered, Lane Kiffin would have the pole position all to himself.

Kiffin is a spin doctor without a medical degree. He thinks truth comes in different shades of gray. He demands loyalty, but gives none himself.

Kiffin is a used car salesman with a whistle. Wait, that's not fair to used car salesmen. He ditched Tennessee for USC after just 13 games. The remaining five years on his contract, the players he left behind, the nine high school recruits who planned to enroll early, they all meant nothing to Kiffin.

That pretty much sums it up for me.

Don't fear the 2010's ! Or ?

There is a very interesting article by Nick Gillespie in the  Wall Street Journal Weekend Edition about whether or not to fear this coming decade of the 2010's. Here's the opening paragraph---Few decades have been as resolutely and relentlessly dismal as this past one, which is thankfully all over but the shouting (a note to calendaric purists who insist that the decade really runs from 2001 to 2010: You're part of the problem). Contested elections, international terrorism, more bubbles blown (and burst!) than on a Lawrence Welk special. Did we really survive the Y2K bug, avian flu and the unstoppable proliferation of saggy pants for this?


The article goes on to point out some of the frivolous arguments that have erupted in past decades like the following and muses about what irrelevant dramas might come up in this new decade:

What will be the great hysterical fears of the coming decade? By definition, such worries need to be simultaneously undocumentable and just plausible enough to convince politicians, celebrities, civic do-gooders, captains of industry and media types that our very society hangs in the balance...

For a classic example, think back to the 1980s, when Tipper Gore, the wife of then-Sen. Al Gore, helped form the Parents Music Resource Center and addressed the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation regarding the pressing topic of sexual, violent and occult imagery in pop music. As Mrs. Gore wrote in her best-selling (and now hard-to-find) 1987 book "Raising PG Kids in an X-Rated Society," "By using satanic symbols on the concert stage, and album covers, such as those used by Ozzy Osbourne...certain heavy metal bands lure teenagers into what one expert has called 'the cult of the eighties.' Many kids experiment with the deadly satanic game, and get hooked."

It is probably only thanks to the intervention of the Gores that we managed as a country to wrestle free both of Beelzebub's and Ronnie James Dio's bony grasp.  What a classic example of the media running amok with the thoughts and rantings of the Gores. 


Will "Inconvenient Truth" from Al Gore suffer the same fate as we look back in coming decades? Most likely. The global warming debate will surely be looked back upon as a farce, much like the impending "Mini Ice Age'" debate from the late 70's. 


Here are some thoughts from various readers  in the opinion section of the WSJ (and from me)  about concerns for the upcoming decade---



Keynesian economics
Corporate controlled media bias with disinformation and half truths and obvious agenda cheerleading
People that still believe that one political party can save us
Continued take over of our goverment by a financial oligarchy and multinational corporations
Saving investors and businesses that made horrible financial decisions at taxpayers expense
The fed
The money printing press
Destroying savers to help debtors
Continued and escalating wars
Our goverment selling our childrens future away with insane debt levels
The casino stock market
Goldman sachs
JP morgan
GE
Politicians passing massive legislation without reading it themselves
Healthcare
Cap and trade
People that saved and worked hard never being able to retire
Inflation
Ben bernake
Larry summers
Rahm
Christine romer
Robert rubin
Far right wingers
Far left wingers
Horrible public schools
Growing prison population
Ever expanding goverment
Small business loss of faith in future opportunities
Killing the spirit of the entrepreneur
Good people that want to work but cant find jobs
To big to fails
Smart people that are avoiding the obvious destruction of our country but are pretending that all will be well when they themselves have studied history and know better. 

Relationships and Moderate Capitalism !

Welcome to 2010 everybody! 10 years ago on New Year's Eve, my wife filled our bath tub with water and we all awakened wondering if our computers were going to work and if the world would function properly as we moved into the year 2000. Our children were mere young kids, life seemed simpler, and the world a little less complex. I was into trading stocks, focusing on making money, and running a business. I was pretty certain that making a lot of money was my primary goal in life, behind being a good husband and father, which fortunately, comes fairly naturally to me. Building solid relationships was a loose concept that was distant to my mind. I sort of did that without thinking, and I wish I had focused more on building solid relationships sooner in life.

Looking back and looking forward at the same time, I'm certain that making a lot of money should be way down the list of priorities for most everyone in this world including me. Making money is actually very unimportant in the grand scheme of things. The problem is that greed starts to take over. Am I taking a swipe at Capitalism??...hardly. It's still the best economic system in which to operate, but dang those people who take advantage of it for the purpose of serving themselves and no one else at the expense of building relationships. Madoff comes to mind. They are in "the game" for themselves only.

 Could "Moderate Capitalism"  be entered into the lexicon of available business terms? And could the definition of a successful Moderate Capitalist  include one who builds solid relationships in his or her quest to conquer the world in a financial sense? It just makes sense that those who build a solid base of relationships would then not take advantage of those people from a capitalist perspective. A Moderate Capitalist would not or could not have a net worth over $25 million. (that would exclude Madoff)  A Moderate Capitalist would have to be personally involved with 3 non profits, would have to demonstrate giving back to children in some way, shape, or form, and of course, could not have a criminal record. What are some of the other requirements for a successful moderate capitalist? Comment below..

My goal this year is to try to focus on building more solid relationships in my quest to be a "Moderate Capitalist"    Money is great, but too much money is over rated.  So many people get greedy and are never happy when they have enough. They just want more. I know it's a fine line... I'd rather have a solid mix of great relationships, and a successful business all rolled into one happy and productive life.

Make it a great year!