Thursday, February 16, 2006

Winter Weather Moving South of Nashville

Here is the latest post from the National Weather Service Forecast Discussion Group:
Maybe we'll get something out of this system, but it's still a tough call.


MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FROM MONTANA (1056 MB HI) WILL SPILL INTO
MID STATE FRI INTO SAT. MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONT OVER GULF COAST
STATES COMBINED WITH DENSE COLD AIR WILL PROVIDE OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO LATE FRI NITE AND SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN GETTING CONSISTENTLY
COLDER (AS SUSPECTED) AND AM MORE CONFIDENT FORECASTING WINTRY
TYPE PRECIP FOR FRI NITE AND SAT...ESPECIALLY N. GFS MORE GUNG-HO
WITH QPF AMOUNTS FRI NITE...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPECT. SAT LOOKS LIKE
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST PART...MAYBE AN INCH OR 2.

AS FOR TEMPS...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM MAV NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...
AND IT DOESNT END THERE. AN INVERTED TROF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS CWA SUN AND SUN NITE. CONSIDERING COLD AIR IN PLACE HAS NOT
HAD MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODIFY...AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL TREND TOWARD A MORE WINTRY
FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS...BUT STILL KEEP THE 50% POPS.

It all sounds good for us winter weather fans, but the good stuff is going to be south of here. Monday may be our best chance. Stay tuned.

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