Thursday, February 02, 2006

Fall Out from the Big Speech

These are comments from Gene Inger, a thoughtfully long winded, but mostly accurate analyst. Thanks to my brother Dortch for these comments, cut and pasted from Inger's newsletter.

There is a significant 'flap' developing with OPEC, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries today warned that President Bush’s proposal to reduce much US dependence on Middle Eastern oil could badly jeopardize needed investment in Gulf oil production and refining capacity. Gee, well they should have been accommodative to the needs of the United States in many aspects over recent years and appreciative of the sacrifices the U.S. made for them not only in the region, but in the Balkans too.

Tennessee Tops Vandy Moves to 11-0 at Home. Pearl Wears Orange Jacket A-LA Mears

Yes, some great news out of Knoxville for a change. Tennessee Beats Vandy. Read it and weep Commodore fans.

And, read the article too--Bruce Pearl actually went to see legendary coach Ray Mears, and asked his permission to bring back the Orange Sports Coat against Vanderbilt and Kentucky! How cool is that!!??

(note to all non UT Fans--Ray Mears used to wear an orange jacket to every Kentucky and Vanderbilt basketball games in the 60's and 70's, which would absolutely perturb those fans)!!

Do you think Fulmer can coach his way out of this one?

The Vols finish the 2006 recruiting season with a class ranked anywhere from No. 15 to the mid-20s by various national services. Scout.com ranked Tennessee 24th in the nation and seventh in the SEC.

Fulmer declined to talk about specific players that spurned the Vols but spoke to the overall recruiting landscape at a press conference Wednesday evening.

"There's guys that just lie to you - flat lie to you," Fulmer said. "That goes back to upbringing."

The bad news for UT continued into the afternoon when Aleric Mullins from East Lake High in Wendell, N.C., signed with North Carolina. A source close to UT's program said Mullins told UT's coaches that he was committed to being a Vol during his Jan. 13 official visit.

"We certainly fought through some ups and downs as we fought the recruiting battles from a different position than we've been in since I've been a football coach," Fulmer said. "That's after a sub-par season, so that presented some challenges."

Sub par? How about disastrous?

Guess who was ranked number one this year--Our old nemesis--Florida!

Who Reads Newspapers Any More?

Read this article
about how advertising revenue continues to decline at the Tribune company's print newspapers. I'm sure they are scratching their heads wondering what to do. Look at your own habits. Do you read newspapers as much as you did, say, one, five, or ten years ago? I still subscribe to the Tennessean and the Wall Street Journal. Half the time one or both papers goes into the recycle bin having gone unread that day. The Sports section of the Tennessean is the only section worth reading anyway.

Here is one nugget from this article: Online revenue climbed 40% to $46 million, largely due to the improvement in classified help-wanted ads.. Times, they are a changin'.

Political Grandstanding at it's best

Specter must be up for re-election this year.

Senate hearings on record oil company profits

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Trying not to get drawn into the State of the Union

Why? Beacause you just can't get away from it today, and everbody is blogging about it, and I'm being sucked in like a piece of lint into a vacuum cleaner.

Well, I think this is the best article about the whole speech, even though it was a post interview on his plane ride down to Nashville for this speech today at the Grand Ole Opry.

Let me tell you it was a fabulous State of the Union speech. I'll just comment on the energy section, and won't get sucked into the Hoover or Oreck section of Iraq, etc. Why in the world would anyone expect any type of governmental action on the price of oil? Is Exxon, or BP, or anyone for that matter taking advantage of the situation? Absolutely not! These guys are running their businesses, and they are having a hard time meeting supply with the demand. I have no problem with Exxon or any oil company making a bunch of money right now. Thank God they are in business and have the resources to get gasoline to the market. Put that in your pipe and smoke it !

What I loved about the President last night, and what I think hit a major home run in the State of the Union Speech was the comment on developing an alternative energy source to oil in "W"'s lifetime, and maybe even in the next 10 years or less. That would be awesomely cool if we could get away from depending on the rogue nations to supply our nation with oil--plus we would not have to deal with their own insecurities. We have to look beyond oil, and not short sighted goals such as drilling for oil in the Alaska or------raising the fuel efficiencies aka MPG's of cars. What good would all that do? We need to find another source of energy (as I opined in a previous post BEFORE the State of the Union speech). It's not rocket science....Oil gets us into trouble, because we are addicted to it---like a junkie on heroin.

In conclusion, I'm always proud to be an American, but I was especially proud of President Bush on Monday night. Yes, it's old news and I'm sorry for this late post, but he hit on all cylinders....ahem, one criticism...the $14 billion in program cuts last year was micro BS---in a trillion dollar budget, he should have cut $150 billion or more....George Bush likes big government to the point of it being his achilles heel.

As for the up and down on separate sections of the "isle". How could the Democrats applaud and make noise about NOT doing something about Social Security ? It was like, naaa naaa naaa naaaa naaa naaa (sung to hey, hey, hey, good bye)....How could they be proud of putting off inevitably more than likely, the plain and simple fact that social security is going broke, and has been going broke?

What original, unique idea have the Democrats come up with lately? Name one.

Yes, I turned down Tix to see "W"

President Bush is speaking today at the Grand Ole Opry House and I could have been there. But, I would have had to been there by 10Am, gone into lock down mode around 11 am, hope that he was on time, and speaking around 12:10 pm, and then waited for the "all clear" from the Secret Service after his speech around 12:45 pm or so, and probably been back in the office by 1:30 pm. That is just too much hassle for me. I did see him the last time he spoke at Vanderbilt Medical Center, and I went through all of the above. I have to admit, it was very very cool when he came out on stage, and "Hail to the Chief" was played and the Secret Service was all over the place. Plus, seeing the Blackhawk helicopters buzzing around West End and Hillsboro Rd area--before, during and after his speech. I guess I'm just not a political junkie the way I used to be. Seriously, there are people today who are so pumped up to see "W" that they can hardly contain themselves. This is what they live for--a Presidential visit and speech. This is what keeps them motivated--seeing their man in person. That used to be me. I used to think about running for office and playing the 'ole political game, but somewhere along the way, other priorities, and other interests surfaced. The only way I got tix to the event today was by financially supporting Bob Corker for Senate, so I guess I'm still a little involved in the whole thing. Suffice to say, it's good to know your Congressman, Senator, or Governor! And let's hope good men and women out there still want to serve the public. God knows we need them, whoever and wherever they are!

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Google Wierdness on Wall Street

You are probably hearing how google got wallopped in the stock market after hours on Tuesday. Now, I'm not a fan of Google if you are a regular reader, you know how I feel about their increasing, shall we say, hegemony, but their earnings were up 82% from the previous year in the same quarter. That is absolutely balls to the wall, incredbile. Now, Wall Street is rewarding them with a huge shellacking. I'm involved with several small businesses. If any of my businesses had earning up 82% over the previous year, same quarter, I'd be high fiving the entire office, and probably dishing out bonuses to boot, along with buying a keg of beer on a Friday afternoon, if not 2 kegs. Wall Street is just a strange, strange world of pushing the envelope of 'figgers, and never being satisfied with tangible results that are "below" expectations of some numbers crunching MBA-grad 20 something pencil pusher.

More Google--From Rexblog.com

Do know evil: John Battelle asked the following two questions to Google and in both cases they told him, the answer is "yes":

"1) "Given a list of search terms, can Google produce a list of people who searched for that term, identified by IP address and/or Google cookie value?" 2) "Given an IP address or Google cookie value, can Google produce a list of the terms searched by the user of that IP address or cookie value?"

My comment--It's true--Google is the second coming of Big Brother.

OIL Issues

I don't have a problem with Exxon making $10 Billion last quarter--did you see that their profit margin was around 8% ? As a comparison, Proctor and Gamble had a profit margin of 13% last quarter. Maybe we should get mad at P&G for making so much money off of soap and TP? I don't find myself in the windfall profit tax area of the debate.
Exxon is making a fair profit on the product they are producing, distributing, and selling. That's how an economy based on capitalism is supposed to work.

I do find myself concerned, however, that Exxon is not re-investing enough funds to look for new sources of energy--That is what we desperately need. A new source of energy that can be rapidly turned into an inexpensive source of fuel. I don't think Hydrogen is it. It is too expensive to convert to energy (although water is the only needed ingredient besides hydrogen). Hybrid fuel cells have promise--but they depend too much on oil still. I'm going to keep posting on this challenge.

Read these thoughts from Steven Leeb, a leading analyst and stock guru-


OUR DEPENDENCY ON THE KINDNESS OF ROGUES


The danger we must be ever on the lookout for is an oil spike. Today, oil prices are being driven higher by 1) a long-term gap between supply and demand and 2) the political problems within the world’s largest oil producers.

Last Thursday – to pick the most recent example – Iran’s president threatened to put an embargo on oil exports from his country if the IAEA refers the issue of Iran’s nuclear program to the UN Security Council. Eoin O’Callaghan, an oil analyst for BNP Paribas, warned that such a move could push oil prices over $90 a barrel – exactly the type of spike we have been fearing, because it would mean we need to switch to a more defensive investment posture.

We have said several times that America’s dependence on rogue nations for our oil supply is our biggest liability. From Iran to Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Saudi Arabia – all the big oil exporters are either undeveloped, unstable, or renegade economies. The reason for this is simple. All the stable, developed, friendly countries that have oil are already using all the oil they produce and, like us, are looking to buy more.

In a recent article by Fortune Magazine writer Nelson Schwartz, billionaire investor George Soros is quoted as being “very worried about the supply-demand balance” in oil. What’s more, Soros comments, “Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided.”

If that isn’t enough, the article also quotes Hermitage Capital’s Bill Browder who thinks oil could reach $262 a barrel.

My new book, The Coming Economic Collapse (which was finished last October, and will be released next month), makes a similar prediction.

So where does that leave us for the near term? Right now, stocks are still enjoying seasonal strength, having recovered a little last week. And this strength may continue for the next two weeks or so. However, our Master Key is still close to neutral, so after then all bets are off.

Again, I must stress: keep an eye on oil. If it does experience a spike above $90, that could create weakness in all stocks, even energy stocks, as it would imply the start of a recession.


Back to my thoughts----I don't have a problem with Exxon making $10 Billion last quarter--did you see that their profit margin was around 8% ? As a comparison, Proctor and Gamble had a profit margin of 13% last quarter. Maybe we should get mad at P&G for making so much money off of soap and TP? I don't find myself in the windfall profit tax area of the debate.
Exxon is making a fair profit on the product they are producing, distributing, and selling. That's how a capitality economy works.
I do find myself concerned that Exxon is not re-investing enough funds to look for new sources of energy--That is what we desperately need. A new source of energy that can be rapidly turned into an inexpensive source of fuel. I don't think Hydrogen is it.It is too expensive to convert to energy (although water is the only needed ingredient besides hydrogen). Hybrid fuel cells have promise--but they depend too much on oil still. I'm going to keep posting on this challenge.

Monday, January 30, 2006

Things were getting just a wee bit too serious

In an attempt to lighten up just a tad, I came across this today, and thought it was just too good to pass up. Thanks to bloggerblaster.com.

Public Service Announcement

The Bloggerblaster Guide to Women's Personals Ads:

40-ish ........................ 49.
Adventurous .............. Slept with everyone.
Athletic ...................... No breasts
Average looking .......... Moooo.
Beautiful .................... Pathological liar.
Emotionally Secure ... On medication.
Feminist .................... Fat
Free spirit .................. Junkie
Friendship first .......... Former slut.
New-Age ................... Body hair in the wrong places.
Old-Fashioned ........... No BJs.
Open-minded ............. Desperate
Outgoing ................... Loud and Embarrassing.
Professional .............. Bitch
Voluptuous ................ Very Fat
Large frame ............... Hugely Fat
Wants soul mate ....... Stalker

Not really having any idea what personal ads are all about, this sort of sums it all up, does it not? Marketing in the 21st century for a date has come a long way from the bar scene in the 70's!

My Doctor says the Same Thing

Mike Calloway, managing partner in Heritage Medical Assoicates of Nashville, TN., agrees with this article, Primary Care about to collapse, Physicians Warn Mike says he makes 50% of what he earned 10 years ago, and he is telling his children to think twice about being a doctor---plus this--If you want to be a doctor, make sure you have a speciality if you want to make any money.

More Middle East Thoughts

I just came back from the Downtown Rotary meeting where the speaker today was Daniel Ayalon, Ambassador to the United States from Israel. He is Israel's top diplomat in the United States. Before his post as Ambassador to the U. S., Ayalon was Chief Foreign Policy Advisor to Ariel Sharon. He was quite an impressive speaker due to his complete grasp on the whole Middle East situation.

First and most importantly, Ayalon contends that during the course of history, whether that be 5 years, 15 years, or 50 years, the Iraq war waged by (primarily) the U. S. will be viewed as the turning point in the Middle East. He contends that an era of peace and prosperity is just around the corner, because terrorists are an extreme faction in these countries, and they will be brought to their knees, while the more moderate, "normal" people will realize (and are realizing now) that they can join the economic revolution in other parts of the world in relative peace. The U. S. must persist and must press the war on terrorism until a stable government is in place in Iraq. He predicted 3-5 more years of daily struggles for our servicemen.

Ayalon also contends that Hamas in Palestine was only attempting to win 30-35% of Parliment, and was just as surprised as the rest of the world, when they won the majority of seats last week. Ayalon went on to surmise that now that Hamas is in the center of power in Palestine, that they will feel the heat, and ultimately lose the battle, as they will not be able to maintain their popularity amongst voters (because they supplied a lot of the day to day necessities to voters, hence, the voters returned the favor without much thought)---once Hamas is viewed in terms of running the entire country. Hamas is not prepared to be the leading political party in terms of running an entire government is basically the translation I received from Ayalon's talk today.

Ayalon's harshest words were for Iran. He contends there is a 30% unemployment rate, rampant poverty, and an incredibly poor country run by an Islmanic extremist. Why would a country like that pour billions and billions of dollars into nuclear energy when they have the 2nd largest reserves of oil in the world? I admit, that one question stuck with me more than anything from his talk. Ayalon was very reserved and a very steady speaker, but his temprament and his voice definitely rose to another level when speaking of Iran. This is a kettle pot getting ready to boil--Iran/ Israeli/ U. S. relations.

My other thoughts about this speech are that Ayalon sounded a lot like George W. Bush. Both Bush and Ayalon say we are winning in the Middle East, Islamic extremists are on the run such as Hezbellah, Al Queada, the Taliban, Etc. I wish I could see what they see--All I read and hear about is the growing power of Iran, the growing power of Hamas, and the fact that the U. S. is creating instability in the region, and not winning any friends.

I hope these thoughts are a product of the U. S. media, and I hope and pray that Ayalon and President Bush are for more prescient and forward thinking than I. Which they should be (: These factions over there have been fighting for thousands of years, and I see no reason why we (the U.S.) can bring this in-fighting to a close in under 10 years and establish democracies through out the region.

Ambassador Ayalon was very promising and very much gave me hope, however.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

What will Israel/ United States do about Hamas?

In case you missed the big news last week, the self described terrorist organization turned political party, Hamas, won the majority of seats in the democratic election held last week in Palestine, Israel's next door neighbor. Sure, we all know that they have been fighting on and off for decades, with the tilt of military prowress and international support edging towards Israel; however, this is the first time the true feelings of the Palestinians have been measured at the election box. This is hugely negative news for the peace process that had been considered well on it's way--particularly after the death of Yassir Arafat and with the withdrawal of Isreal from the West Bank. Look, it's difficult for me to understand everything that goes on over there, and to filter out what the U. S. press and the U. S. administration wants us to believe. Here is an article worth reading. Hamas sweeps to victory in Palestine

George Bush cannot simply cut off aid to Palestine after a democratically elected Hamas assumes leadership, or can he? Seems to me that once the people vote, we have to respect their wishes, even if it's against our doctrine. Let's just say that we are in a pickle that's for sure, because we have been pushing for elections in Palestine, and everyone thought that Fatah was going to win over Hamas. Didn't happen. Now, we have to support Israel (for Biblical reasons I guess, and because of the huge Jewish population over here in the U. S.) and we have to distance ourselves from whom the people elected in Palestine. I might not have all the angles in this post exactly correct, because it's pretty complex stuff over there in Mideast politics. Take this one thought with you--Hamas is primarily Islamic. Islam is growing in political strenghth worldwide--just look at Iran. These are seeds that will come back to haunt us one day, perhaps one day soon. I would not be surprised if Osama Bin Laden could be elected prime minister of Saudi Arabia, if he were allowed to run. Seriously. I get the feeling our foreign policy is so botched, and has been botched for years, that something radical is going to happen if we don't take the cover off. We are perceived (the U. S. ) in a very negative light world-wide (particularly in the Middle East)---and this has taken decades to ferment---it's not just a George Bush thing.

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Michelle Kwan On Olympic Squad/ Salute to Challenger

In my quest to run the half marathon this April, today, Saturday, is the long run day. So, I'm off to meet the group led by Leanne Fray, and at least, the weather is warm and sunny. On to the news-- One of the sports headlines that grabbed my attention today was this
Kwan gets last shot at Olympic Gold
I often get ripped by friends, Louis Kirkpatrick, and particularly, from my brother, Danny, about my interest in women's Olympic figure skating. Booyah! It's just around the corner! Another exciting night of triple lutzes, triple toe loops, triple axels and the like at this year's event in Italy!

Where were you 20 years ago today? Remembering Challenger I remember it well--Sharon and I were newlyweds, and I was managing the Best Western Campus Inn in Knoxville, TN. We were at the front desk checking in some guests when someone came running into the lobby screaming about the Shuttle having blown up in mid air. We all rushed to the first un-occupied room, and from that moment on, the entire work force at the Campus Inn crowded into that room, and we watched that terrible clip over and over again. I remember that it took NASA a long time to announce "officially" what had happened, when obviously, the Shuttle was blown to smithereens. May the astronauts rest in Peace, and may the memory and ideals set forth by Christa McAuliffe live forever.

Friday, January 27, 2006

Who is the best? Steve Jobs or Bill Gates-You Decide

Jobs versus Gates Who's the Star?


Previously, I have posted about my admiration for Steve Jobs, and for my dismissal of everything that Bill Gates does in the business world. Gates copied windows from the Mac guys back in the early 80's, and of course, made just a few changes to escape the legal challenge mounted by Apple way back then. Apple never had a chance after losing the court case (because Microsoft had already infiltrated most PC manufacturers with their Operating System (pre-windows), and so, Microsoft was off to rapid domination of what it takes for a computer to work. Also, Netscape was way ahead in the internet browser race in the mid 90's, only to be crushed by Microsoft who had to play catch up once again by copying and basically modifying all that Netscape first delivered. Now, there is news that Microsoft is going to develop a rival to the IPOD. I have a hard time believing that Gates will prevail in this instance. However, in his personal life, Bill Gates has always been a philanthropist, and as this article points out, Bill Gates leaves Steve Jobs in the dust on this side of the equation. Thanks again to Mike Petruna for this interesting perspective and link above.

This is No Hogan's Hero's

These guys are serious south of the border, whoever they are. I would put my money on druggies and not terrorists. However, that hole is big enough for a bunch of bad stuff to come over our way--undetected obviously.

Massive Drug Tunnel Found Under US-Mexico Border

That's the one rub many conservative Republicans have with "W"--very little border control both north and south of our border. Here's hoping this raises some serious eyebrows up in D. C.

Google, Just Stop Googling the Business World

Google may be close to developing ITunes competitor
You know, sometimes company's just go in too many different directions and it really pisses me off. Maybe it's because I'm a small business guy. I avoid Wal Mart, never have liked Microsoft, and now, Google is getting on my nerves. It seems like every day they enter a new market or go in a different direction. Even though Google Earth is cool, why is this necessary? Okay, full disclosure, I sold my google stock @ $110. Now it's north of $400...Even if I had kept the stock (and locked in the profits), I still would like to think that my feelings would be the same.....Would that I were a smarter stock picker tho'
(Thanks for my friend and co-worker Mike Petruna for this link)

Thursday, January 26, 2006

John Pennington--My favorite UT Blogger

John Pennington runs a blog and also hosts a radio/tv show in K-Town covering the VOL nation sports. Actually, he's very level headed and was down on the vols last fall long before the free fall began. In other words, he's not so crazy orange that his comments are one sided, as can happen frequently out of Knoxville, particularly out of the VOL network as one might imagine. In any event, I like him a lot, and I'll frequently post his comments on my blog.

Topic of the week for VOL fans--the $5000 fine given to UT for the fans charging the court after the impressive VOL victory over Florida last Saturday night. Needless to say, we've got something brewing up there with Bruce Pearl. I was fortunate enough to meet Bruce Pearl last fall, and he is every bit as animated and enthusiastic in person as you have probably been reading. Anyway, here are John's comments about last Saturday night in Knoxville-


Jeremy Foley Complains

Tennessee has been fined $5000 by the SEC for allowing students to charge the floor after Saturday night's win over #2, undefeated Florida. Florida AD Jeremy Foley then went to the media to complain about his team's safety and UT's lack of a commitment to security.

This, of course, would mean something if he weren't the AD at Florida.

John's Verdict: The idea of protecting players (and preventing possible injuries and lawsuits) is a smart one. However, I can't ever remember seeing a #1 or #2 ranked team lose a basketball game on the road when FANS didn't storm the court. Anywhere. Everywhere.

Coach Pearl and Mike Hamilton are correct in saying that UT fans shouldn't repeat the incident (again, I'm an "act like you expected to beat them" person), but a one-time scenario (that not ONE Florida player complained about) isn't the end of the world.

UT had extra security on hand, but apparently firehoses and dogs are in order... if you ask Foley. Aside from billy-sticking people, I don't know what security can do to stop kids from rushing onto the court.

And lastly, as I noted earlier, isn't Florida known for being THE worst place in the SEC for visiting fans? Perhaps Florida security could do something about fans that throw cups of urine at the wives of opposing coaches. Perhaps Florida security could do something about the verbal abuse that opponents' fans have to endure at Florida Field.

No? Then shaddup.

Foley needed to pick up a phone and call Hamilton, not the Gainesville Sun. (Remember how UT played the "good guy" during the Hurricanes Katrina/Rita mess before the LSU game last Fall? That's how you do it... behind closed doors. Outwardly, you don't pop your bill.)

Personally, I think that fans of every team that has to travel to Gainesville should start making lists of all the lewd, crude, rude and socially unacceptable behavior that they encounter at Florida... then mail them to ESPN. A nice long list of bad actions, that would probably read the same from fans of Arkansas to Tennessee to South Carolina, wouldn't paint a very nice picture of the Florida Athletic Department or their "commitment to security."

Here's a New Line

Sex calms nerves before public speaking- study Well, I must say, if you read the first 2 paragraphs of this article, it doesn't look like Bill Clinton would qualify for the full effect of the therapy mentioned in the title after all. However, if you are a public speaker, it's definitely something to think about.